PUBLIC CASE STUDY

goeasy / LendCare

A recorded payment is not always a settled payment.

Keep booked payments separate from collected cash. Model better settlement reconciliation and fewer classification errors before payment data changes the risk picture.

Alternative lendersConsumer & auto lending
~C$178M

Incremental Q4 2025 charge-off estimated on March 10, 2026 [1]

~C$55M

Related interest and fee write-down estimated in the same update [1]

~12.9%

Expected full-year 2025 net charge-off rate in that update [1]

Historical case analysis · Event period: 2024–2026 · Not an Amlok customer outcome. Currency and measurement scope are stated with each figure.

01 / THE PUBLIC RECORD

What happened.

In its March 10, 2026 update, goeasy announced expected incremental charge-offs related to LendCare and a correction to historical payment reporting. Certain payments had been recorded as received while still in settlement, and some were ultimately not collected.

The company said the reporting correction would affect historical delinquency and staging disclosures. It separately described credit deterioration and operational changes. The figures here preserve the estimates and scope of the March 10 disclosure; they are not presented as final audited results or a current forecast.

Source record [1][2]

THE RISK MECHANISM

Ledger state, processor status, and cleared bank funds can disagree. That difference matters when arrears, staging, partner performance, and portfolio decisions depend on payment status.

02 / CONNECT THE SIGNALS

From individual facts to a fuller picture.

Documented in the source record
  • The company disclosed that some payments were recorded before settlement and were ultimately not collected.
  • It said historical delinquency and staging disclosures would require revision.
[1][2]
Questions for retrospective review
  • Can each payment be reconciled from initiation through settlement or return?
  • Do delinquency and merchant-vintage views use consistent payment definitions?
  • Which exceptions need reviewer attention before portfolio reports are finalized?

The review questions are analytical prompts. They do not establish that particular data was available to the institution at the time, or that a different process would have changed the outcome.

03 / THE Amlok INTERVENTION

A different decision starts here.

Prevent an unconfirmed receipt from silently becoming settled cash in the evidence used for a credit review.

EVIDENCE THIS SCENARIO REQUIRES

Authorized payment events, processor settlement files, bank receipts, reversals, account schedules, and reporting cut-off rules.

  1. 01

    Preserve the payment state

    Evidence to connect
    Payment initiation, processor confirmation, settlement timestamps, and actual bank receipts.
    Amlok output
    A reconciliation record distinguishing pending, settled, failed, and reversed payments where supported by source data.

    Decision it could supportKeep unmatched receipts in an exception queue instead of automatically treating them as collected cash.

  2. 02

    Rebuild the as-of position

    Evidence to connect
    The contractual schedule, verified receipts, reporting cut-off, and the evidence version used in the original review.
    Amlok output
    A dated cash-flow and obligation picture that shows the effect of unsettled or reversed items.

    Decision it could supportSend discrepancies to the institution’s finance and risk owners before they rely on the revised position.

  3. 03

    Monitor recurring reconciliation breaks

    Evidence to connect
    Repeated exceptions by channel, processor, reporting period, and account cohort.
    Amlok output
    An evidence-linked pattern of where payment states and collected funds diverge.

    Decision it could supportPrioritize the process failures causing repeated breaks and track whether remediation closes them.

04 / MODELED IMPACT

Put numbers behind the opportunity.

These scenarios apply Amlok’s supplied comparison rates to the review described above. They are projections, not measured results at goeasy / LendCare. Count-based scenarios use an assumed population, not the institution’s actual records.

MODELED SCENARIO

Revenue settlement reconciliation

Assumed population: 1,000 eligible payment settlement groups.

Baseline scenario750
With Amlok, modeled≈900
+150additional reconciled settlement groups

More settlement groups could be matched to verified receipts before they enter a risk assessment.

Calculation & assumptions

Comparison inputs: 75% → ≈90%.

Population calculation: 1,000 × 75% = 750; 1,000 × 90% ≈ 900. Difference: ≈150 additional.

Relative change: (90 − 75) ÷ 75 × 100 ≈ +20%.

15 percentage points higher than the input baseline. Assumes transaction and bank evidence can be aligned to a common settlement group. Reconciliation coverage is not a charge-off or delinquency outcome.

View the supplied comparison inputs
MODELED SCENARIO

Transaction classification error

Assumed population: 10,000 classified payment transactions.

Baseline scenario280
With Amlok, modeled≈266
14fewer expected classification errors

The modeled error count declines from 280 to 266 across the assumed 10,000-transaction population.

Calculation & assumptions

Comparison inputs: 2.8% → ≈2.66%.

Population calculation: 10,000 × 2.8% = 280; 10,000 × 2.66% ≈ 266. Difference: ≈14 fewer.

Relative change: (2.66 − 2.8) ÷ 2.8 × 100 ≈ −5%.

0.14 percentage points lower than the input baseline. Applies the supplied classification-error rates to the same labeled transaction set. These are classification errors, not a count of mis-staged loans.

View the supplied comparison inputs

From a projection to a validated result.

Replay reporting cut-offs using bank-confirmed settlement outcomes as labels. Measure reconciled groups and classification errors, then separately test whether corrected evidence changes delinquency staging.

The preliminary charge-off estimates include credit deterioration. They are not a measured loss caused by payment classification and are not used as a savings denominator. The supplied comparison rates are approximate scenario inputs; no institution-specific replay or confidence interval is available for these estimates. The two metrics describe separate dimensions and should not be added together.

05 / EVIDENCE & SCOPE

Read the source material.

The March 10 update contains estimates and separates credit deterioration from the reporting correction. Their relationship should not be treated as a proven single cause of all losses.

  1. 01
  2. 02

Amlok’s interpretation is independent of the institutions discussed. Public records are limited to their stated scope and period. Historical figures describe the source events; the separately labeled Amlok scenarios are calculated projections. Institution names and logos do not imply affiliation or endorsement.

CONTINUOUS RISK INTELLIGENCE

Keep up with riskas fast as it changes

A point-in-time decision does not need to become a blind spot for the life of the deal.

A barista handing a coffee to a customer across a wooden café counter, with pale brick walls and cool natural daylight.
Early signalRevenue trend changed-18% against baseline
Portfolio baseline90 daysContinuously refreshed
Monitoring activeRisk trajectory updatedEvidence attached · team notified